Research and background
Accurate numerical weather forecasts are essential for the mitigation of the threat to life and property presented by high-impact weather systems. In the Atlantic-European sector a variety of different HIW-systems present significant challenges for numerical weather prediction:
- European windstorms
- Mediterranean cyclones
- Tropical cyclones and their transformation into extratropical systems
- Severe convection in Europe
The aim of PANDOWAE is to advance our knowledge and understanding of the dynamical processes responsible for the development of high impact weather systems, to elucidate the factors that limit the predictability of such systems, and to contribute the basic research that will lead to the development of innovative interactive weather forecasting systems. The majority of high impact weather events that threaten western and central Europe, while often small in scale, owe their development to larger scale motions. In the Atlantic-European sector the structure of the upper-tropospheric jetstream plays a crucial role in the development of European high impact weather. Moist processes such as evaporation and condensation have also a strong influence on HIW. To improve the forecasts of such events, innovative methods with adaptive observations and ensemble forecasts will be developed. Thus result the three research areas of PANDOWAE:
- Research Area A: Upper-level Rossby wave trains: generation, propagation and wave-breaking
- Research Area B: Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves
- Research Area C: Ensembles and adaptivity
To reach the aims above the group will perform climatologies linking dynamical processes to forecast error,
joint case studies based on operational analyses and forecasts will be performed. Differrent diagnostic techniques will be applied. Furthermore, idealised and real-case modelling studies as well as data denial and data impact studies. Application and further development of ensemble systems ia also planned. Important contribution will also be made to the planning and analysis of observational field campaigns.
