"Improving the Prediction of High Impact Weather"
Karlsruhe, Germany, March 18th to 19th 2013
(followed by a T-NAWDEX meeting on March 20th)
Aim of the workshop:
To define a High Impact Weather project as legacy to THORPEX emphasizing the improvement of the predictions of high impact weather on the hours-to-weeks timescales with a stronger focus on shorter time and space scales. It will profit from the international experience gained in THORPEX and which will again take take advantage from international collaboration. The project will contain elements of THORPEX that need to be continued and developed further as well as new requirements and drivers beyond the scope of THORPEX. It will link to the THORPEX follow-on-projects sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) and polar prediction (PPP).
Improvement of the predictive skill in the time range hours to weeks in the context of a changing climate with the aim of providing enhanced decision-level information and thus increasing the resilience of society to high-impact weather.
- Basic research on the limits of predictability of high impact weather
- Field campaigns, with a focus on understanding predictability
- A focus on the observing system, ensuring a sustainable network that is fit for purpose.
- Scientific exchange – particularly between operational centres and universities
- Forecasting the impacts of weather to address the requirements of users
- Formulating improved ways of communicating forecast information for the benefit of users
- Studies to quantify the societal benefits of improved forecast information
Data and tools:
- Data from major field campaigns such as T-PARC and HYMEX
- Ensembles and development of probabilistic forecast products; TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM
- Experiments on observing system optimization, including the use of adaptive observations and the exploitation of new observations.
- Forecast demonstration projects
pdf overview: Concept paper following discussion of THORPEX ICSC
THORPEX-HIW was followed by a meeting to define T-NAWDEX, a proposed major field campaign arising from THORPEX.
The workshop took place from 18 March 11:00 to 19 March 2013 at the Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus South.
THORPEX Programme: Sarah Jones(DWD), Brian Golding(UK Met-Office)
T-NAWDEX Programme: Andreas Schäfler(DLR)
WMO contacts: Tetsuo Nakazawa, Jim Caughey, Nathalie Tournier
Local organisation and contact: Aurelia Müller, KIT